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11218 Poblado Rd
San Diego, CA

11218 Poblado Rd

$850,000
3 bd • 3 ba • 1,240 sf

This analysis was generated by artificial intelligence on 1/24/2025. It is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered as real estate or investment advice.

List Price

$850,000

Price/Sq.Ft

$685

Year Built

1971

AI Property Analysis

A comprehensive evaluation of this property's features, market position, and investment potential.

The Good

This fully remodeled townhouse in San Diego offers exceptional value with its prime location and recent upgrades. Located in the highly-rated Poway Unified School District (PUSD), it boasts proximity to Westwood Elementary School (rated 8/10), enhancing its appeal for families. The property has undergone significant renovations, including new Milliard windows, sliding glass doors, plumbing, HVAC system, flooring, and a reimagined kitchen with new appliances. These upgrades, valued at an estimated $50,000-$70,000, substantially increase the property's value and reduce near-term maintenance costs. The home's price per square foot of $685.48 is competitive for the area, especially considering the recent renovations and desirable school district. The property's minimal flood risk (1/10) is significantly better than many San Diego areas, potentially leading to lower insurance costs. Community amenities such as a clubhouse, pool, tennis and pickleball courts, fitness center, and playground add considerable value, estimated at $100-$150 per month in comparable rental value. The property's appreciation from $615,000 in September 2024 to its current listing of $850,000 represents a 38.2% increase in just 4 months, indicating strong market demand and potential for further appreciation.

The Bad

At 1,240 square feet, the property is smaller than the average three-bedroom home in the area (typically 1,500-1,800 sq ft). This could limit its appeal for larger families or those requiring more space. The home's age (built in 1971) may mean that despite recent renovations, other major systems could require updates in the coming years. The estimated insurance cost of $3,060/year is relatively high, likely due to the fire risk, and represents about 0.36% of the property value annually. This is above the national average of 0.25-0.30%. The property has been on and off the market since August 2024, with price adjustments and a failed pending sale, which could indicate some challenges in closing deals or potential issues discovered during inspections. The rapid price increase of 38.2% in 4 months, while positive for sellers, may raise concerns about market stability and potential overvaluation.

The Ugly

The property faces a MAJOR fire risk (5/10), which is a significant concern in San Diego County. This high risk could lead to substantially increased insurance premiums and potential difficulties in obtaining comprehensive coverage. The heat risk is also MAJOR (5/10), with temperatures reaching 98°F in the 98th percentile and 7 hot days per year. This could result in higher cooling costs and potential health risks, especially for vulnerable populations. The moderate air quality risk (4/10) with 5 bad air days per year could be problematic for residents with respiratory issues. While not directly related to the property, the high median income of the area ($156,464) could lead to increased property taxes and a higher cost of living in general. The total monthly ownership costs, including mortgage (estimated at $4,500 for a 30-year fixed rate at current interest rates), property taxes (approximately $850/month based on a 1.2% rate), insurance ($255/month), and potential HOA fees (unknown, but likely $200-$400/month) could exceed $6,000 per month. This high cost of ownership may limit the pool of potential buyers and could pose challenges for long-term affordability.

Who is this property for?

These details are presented solely for entertainment purposes and are not meant to steer or limit any prospective buyer.

Best For

This property is best suited for: 1. Upper-middle-class families with school-age children who prioritize education, given its location in the highly-rated Poway Unified School District. 2. Professionals or couples with a combined annual income of $200,000+ to comfortably afford the estimated $6,000+ monthly costs (based on a 36% debt-to-income ratio). 3. Buyers looking for a move-in ready home with recent upgrades, willing to pay a premium for updated features and finishes. 4. Those who value community amenities and are willing to pay HOA fees for access to facilities like pools, fitness centers, and tennis courts. 5. Investors looking for short-term appreciation in a rapidly growing market, with potential for strong rental income (estimated at $4,020/month for 3-bedroom units in the area).

Not For

This property is not suitable for: 1. First-time homebuyers or those with limited budgets, given the high purchase price and ongoing costs. 2. Larger families needing more than 1,240 sq ft of living space or more than 3 bedrooms. 3. Individuals with respiratory issues or sensitivities to heat, due to the moderate air quality risk and major heat risk. 4. Buyers uncomfortable with the elevated fire risk or unwilling to pay higher insurance premiums. 5. Those seeking a single-family home with more privacy or land. 6. Investors looking for low-risk, stable long-term appreciation, given the recent rapid price increase and market volatility.
Demographics
Area Median Income

$156,464

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Risk Assessment

Climate Risks

fireMAJOR

Insurance: Required

heatMAJOR

7 extreme heat days per year

98th percentile: 98°F

airMODERATE

5 bad air quality days per year

floodMINIMAL

FEMA Zone: X_UNSHADED

Insurance: Optional

windMINIMAL

Insurance: Optional

Risk Analysis

1. Fire risk (5/10) could lead to insurance premiums 20-30% higher than average and potential coverage limitations. 2. Rapid price appreciation (38.2% in 4 months) suggests potential market instability and risk of a price correction. 3. Age of the property (built 1971) may require additional major system replacements in the next 5-10 years, despite recent renovations. 4. High heat risk (5/10) could result in increased cooling costs and potential health risks during extreme heat events. 5. Moderate air quality risk (4/10) may impact outdoor activities and respiratory health. 6. Unknown HOA fees and potential for increases could affect long-term affordability. 7. High monthly ownership costs (estimated $6,000+) may limit resale potential in the event of market downturn. 8. Previous failed pending sale could indicate undisclosed issues or challenges in closing deals. 9. Smaller size compared to area averages may impact future resale value or appreciation potential. 10. Potential for increased property taxes based on the recent sale price increase and high median income of the area.
Insurance
Annual Cost

$3,060

$255 per month

Financials

Monthly Costs
Market Rent (3 bed)

$4,020

Get a detailed rental estimate on Zillow®
HOA Fee

$490

Price History

Property Taxes

$967
2024 Tax Assessment
2.2%from previous year
Assessed Value$81,705
Tax Rate1.18%

Location & Comparables

Subject Property
Comparable Sales
View on Zillow

Stats in the Area

Average Price

$667,317

-21.5% below list price

Median Price

$644,900

Based on 6 recent sales

Price per Sq.Ft

$518

Comparable Properties

11218 Poblado Road, Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
Price: $615,000
Sq.Ft: 1,240
Beds/Baths: 3/3
$/Sq.Ft:
$49627.6%
Sale Date: 8/20/2024
17865 Caminito Pinero #149, Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128
Price: $644,900
Sq.Ft: 1,218
Beds/Baths: 3/2
$/Sq.Ft:
$52922.8%
Sale Date: 10/17/2024
17885 Caminito Pinero #152, Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128
Price: $599,000
Sq.Ft: 1,218
Beds/Baths: 3/2
$/Sq.Ft:
$49228.3%
Sale Date: 9/18/2024
12043 Callado Rd, Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128
Price: $785,000
Sq.Ft: 1,472
Beds/Baths: 2/2
$/Sq.Ft:
$53322.2%
Sale Date: 11/13/2024
11471 Matinal Circle, San Diego, CA 92127
Price: $720,000
Sq.Ft: 1,355
Beds/Baths: 3/2
$/Sq.Ft:
$53122.5%
Sale Date: 8/31/2024
11830 Caminito Ronaldo #126, Rancho Bernardo, CA 92128
Price: $640,000
Sq.Ft: 1,218
Beds/Baths: 3/2
$/Sq.Ft:
$52523.3%
Sale Date: 8/1/2024

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